A Dollar Is Not a Dollar: A Plea To Make Dollar Policy Great Again
Le Diplomate is one of the toughest tables in Washington, DC. When it opened in 2013 its wildly popular Burger Americain (with French fries) set diners back $14, according to the Washington Post. Thirteen years later, the same meal retails for $29. As Tim Carman and Federica Cocca report at the Post, “the wholesale price of ground beef has soared between 18 and 30 percent in the past few years.”
Ok, so why the higher ground beef prices, and beef prices in general? As you read this barbecue restaurants in Texas are quite literally removing brisket from the menu so expensive has it become, while a basic "Little Cheeseburger" at Five Guys costs more than $10, without French fries. Costs are soaring for seemingly the simplest of meats.
Carman and Cocca point to “Drought conditions” as the “primary reason for the rise in prices,” due to reduced domestic cattle herds. They add that “Domestic cattle shortages mean more beef is arriving from abroad – and it’s more expensive, up from $4.96 per pound in June 2025 to $5.59 per pound in June 2026.”
The factors Carman and Cocca point to are difficult to lean on as big drivers of soaring beef prices. That’s because globalization, or the division of labor, is generally not a cost accelerant.
Moving to the Trump administration, Carman and Cocca report that inside the White House they’re yelling at the proverbial scoreboard with antitrust threats lobbed at the major domestic producers of beef, alongside a reduction in tariffs. The first solution is silly, while the second one is a reminder of the illiteracy informing economic policy within the modern GOP. Which brings us to the purpose of this piece.
Not discussed enough is the dollar. Reporters, politicians, and pundits talk endlessly about the prices of market goods, but almost never about the currency in which those market goods are priced. Their blithe countenance about the dollar reveals a major blind spot in their analysis.
That’s because per the title of this opinion piece, a dollar isn’t a dollar. Instead, the dollar’s valuation is a moving target. Very much so.
Consider the WSJ Dollar Index. Since Donald Trump’s inauguration in January of 2025, the dollar has fallen 6.3 versus various foreign currencies on the Index.
What about gold? Known for its constancy, the yellow metal’s per ounce price doesn’t move as much as the currencies measured in terms of gold do. Notable here is that gold is up roughly 63% since Trump’s inauguration, and up 205% since 2013 when Le Diplomate charged $14 for a cheeseburger. This is not nothing.
Again, the dollar isn’t a dollar in the way that a foot is always 12 inches, the minute 60 seconds, and the pound 16 ounces. Floated in 1971, the dollar has moved up and down since then. Down substantially under Presidents Nixon and Carter, up substantially under Presidents Reagan and Clinton, and then down substantially under Presidents Bush (W.), Obama and Trump. Commodities are very sensitive to the dollar’s movements, and reflect them.
Which explains this opinion piece’s plea. It’s not random that costs from ground beef, to brisket, to gasoline have soared in modern times, rather it’s not insignificantly a reflection of a declining dollar.
Cheeseburgers, brisket sandwiches and gallons of gasoline aren’t expensive as much as the modern dollar is cheap. President Trump thinks a weak dollar is “great.” He’s wrong. See Le Diplomate, see Texas barbecue, and see prices at the pump. How about making a stable dollar great again to reverse a price explosion?
Originally published on Real Clear Markets.